Forget 370, Even 272 is a Far cry

The best time to travel across the country is during elections when our people choose to open up their minds to express themselves freely. With the sole purpose of listening to their issues and aspirations, I make it a point to travel across the country during elections.

Earlier during such cross country travels I used to receive calls from my friends who invariably raised curious questions about the nature of the place, people and their food habits. Now during this visit, I am confronted with the seemingly obsessive question “how many seats would BJP get?”

Psychological Offensive 

Repeated assertions of Modi that BJP would cross 370 seats in this election is nothing but a strategic psychological offensive. Major media houses have meekly surrendered to this offensive and started parroting the same.

Bragging about the 'historic mandate' it got during 2019, the BJP is trying to set a narrative in the minds of people so that they start believing the possibility of BJP getting 400 seats. Since the main stream media echoes the same, there arises a considerable suspicion and even fear among general public.

Many in the opposition too doubt if they can defeat BJP. Even among ‘India Alliance’ partners, many of them underestimate the strength of Congress.

Facts and Reality on the Ground 

Let me respond to mainstream media’s arguments on the strength of BJP based on 2019 results. It is impossible for BJP to win 370 seats in 2024 and I say it with conviction that, it is impossible for BJP to win even 303 seats it won in 2019. Let me explain why?

01. In 2019, the last-minute nationalistic fervour created by Pulwama attack came as a big support for BJP. It made up for the loss of sheen in Modi wave created during 2014.

This time too, in the states where BJP is very strong, I don’t see any major dissatisfaction with Modi among the people. But I could sense a feeling of disenchantment among them. Out of the 14 states, 12 are BJP ruled states and 2 are ruled by the BJP coalition. Out of these 14 states, except for Uttar Pradesh, this disenchantment is clearly visible in the rest 13 states.

Out of the 303 seats won by BJP in 2019, these states contribute 219. Even a minor setback will push BJP below 272. There are no new seats to be won in these states.

02. Why do I say that even minor setback will create major losses for BJP?

During 2019 elections, Congress and the Regional Parties scored zero in many seats. Particularly Congress scored a zero in 17 states / union territories. Even on such a pathetic performance by Congress, BJP could muster only 303 seats just 31 above required 272 for majority.

This time Congress has comeback in many. Of these states albeit to a smaller extent. Congress has been cleansed off its deadwood in many states, who have gone to BJP for it's well. Even if Congress manages to get just 2 seats each in these 17 states, BJP will lose its majority.

03. That Congress won just 52 seats last time, would not mean that BJP is very strong in the rest of the seats.

In 2019, Congress had lost 17 seats by less than 5% votes. 54 seats were lost by less than 15% votes. The situation for Congress has become better this time in these 70 plus seats. A focused and planned work can help congress to get 120 plus seats.

04. Mostly in Indian Parliamentary elections, a difference of 2 lakh votes is scalable and possibility for reversal of fortunes is bright.

In 2019 elections, BJP won 164 seats with a difference of 2 lakh votes and the possibility of changes are high in these constituencies. Among these 164 seats, wherever there is a direct fight between congress and BJP, the vote gains by Congress would directly lead to losses to BJP is something that we should keep in mind.

05. I am not predicting a massive loss for BJP and Congress will win hands down. I am just saying that a minor setback will lead to major changes in the election outcome.

The disenchantment in people which I saw in the field is saying this loud and clear.

In the past two elections, BJP got its massive mandates by containing Congress to less than 50 seats. But this time, Congress will get those numbers from southern part itself. If Congress manages 50-75 seats in the north, it would mean a direct loss to BJP. The regional parties have become stronger than last time is an added factor.

Hard times ahead for BJP

Forget 370. BJP will find it difficult to get a simple majority.

Three months ago, after returning from the tour of the state elections in northern states, I wrote that BJP might get just 225 seats in the parliamentary elections. This time after travelling and reaching out to people on all the corners, I see that the situation on the ground has further hardened for BJP.

We still have one and half months more for the completion of the elections. When both Congress and BJP intensify their fight against each other, the numbers might go bit either way. But BJP can never get past its 2019 numbers is the writing on the wall.

- Samas, Editor, Arunchol. Translated by Bala and Mani.